Monday, September 15, 2008

The Fourth Quadrant: A Map of the Limits of Statistics


Edge 257: "When Nassim Taleb talks about the limits of statistics, he becomes outraged. 'My outrage,' he says, 'is aimed at the scientist-charlatan putting society at risk using statistical methods. This is similar to iatrogenics, the study of the doctor putting the patient at risk.' As a researcher in probability, he has some credibility. In 2006, using FNMA and bank risk managers as his prime perpetrators, he wrote the following:
"The government-sponsored institution Fannie Mae, when I look at its risks, seems to be sitting on a barrel of dynamite, vulnerable to the slightest hiccup. But not to worry: their large staff of scientists deemed these events 'unlikely.'"

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